Hot Horses & Handicapping Tips  Let's Start Winning!    HOT HORSE WATCH LIST Our "Hot Horses" are supplied by handicappers, clockers, owners, trainers,  racetrack "junkies" and others throughout the Thoroughbred industry. Horses identified are expected to run well in their next starts.  Hot Horse followers should apply their own handicapping expertise to consider the competition these horses face and if they represent a good wagering investment.  Our WATCH LIST is updated weekly so check back often for new opportunities.  "Select Hot Horses" are shared exclusively by email with Louisville Thoroughbred Club members.    HOT HORSES                 2008 HOT HORSE RESULTS (results reflect the next start of Hot Horses after they are listed above or offered through email.              Denis Of Cork won at the Fairgrounds returning $3.80     Wild and Proud won at Buelah Park returning $3.60     Timeless Fashion won at Turfway Park returning $10.80     2007 HOT HORSE RESULTS (results reflect the next start of Hot Horses after they are listed above. 12 of 14 2007 Hot Horses have won or placed in their next start)        Delta Slam placed at Turfway Park returning $5.60.      Arson Squad won the Strub Stakes at Santa Anita and returned $8.80 for the win.      Circumvent finished 5th at odds of 16-1        Clayton's Party finished 6th at odds of 54-1      Mims Eppi placed at Churchill Downs returning $6.20       Stone Model won at River Downs returning $5.60       Newport Harbour placed at Monmouth returning $3.40       Newport Harbour  placed again at Monmouth returning $2.60      Mims Eppi won at Ellis Park returning $2.60        Star Over Malibu placed at Turfway Park returning $9.00       Mutak placed at Turfway Park returning $2.60      Star Over Malibu placed at Keeneland returning $6.00      Star Over Malibu won at Churchill Downs returning $5.60      Timeless Fashion off at odds of 8-1 placed at Turfway returning $4.00        WAGER CALCULATOR Click on the link below to download a calculator that will help you determine the cost of exactas, trifectas, superfectas, pick-3, pick-4, and pick-6 wagers.  By selecting the type of bet you wish to make and checking the number of horses in each position or leg of your multi-race bets you can figure out the cost of straight, box, and wheel bets.  It’s a great tool!      http://home.att.net/~prof.factor/f_ewc.html     HANDICAPPING TIPS AND WAGERING STRATEGIES   WAGERING STRATEGIES   THE WIN/INSURANCE WAGER The Win/Insurance wager is a “win-place-show” wager on one horse in a race, where different amounts are wagered in all three positions.  Based on research, a wager ratio of $2 win, $4 place and $12 to show has proven to be the most successful with this type of bet.   The place and show parts of this wager provide some “insurance” in case your selected horse doesn’t win, but does come in second or third.  If he does win you make a nice percentage profit.  If he places you’re still likely to make a profit, and if your horse shows you’re likely to get your investment back, hence the term insurance wager.   HOW TO PLAY MULTI-RACE WAGERS (DAILY DOUBLE & PICK 3) Multi-Race wagers require that we look for winners only.  In these types of wagers the payoffs multiply dramatically when the races are won by non-favorites.   The results of a recent Santa Anita Pick 3 Payoff Study showed an average payout of $31 when the favorite won three legs of the Pick 3, $119 when the favorite won two legs of the Pick 3, $641 when the favorite won one leg, and $1,768 when the favorite won none of the Pick 3 races.   Here Are Some Preferred Multi-Race Wagers   Daily Double Ticket 1.  A/ABC Ticket 2.  ABC/A The ticket cost is only $6 for a $1 Daily Double and both tickets win if the "A" horse wins both the first and second race of the double.   Pick 3 Play the Pick 3 as an extension of the Daily Double above.  Three tickets are recommended as follows: A/ABC/ABC ABC/A/ABC ABC/ABC/A Your ticket cost is $9 for each $1 Pick 3 - Total cost $27 Note that all three tickets win if the "A" horse wins all three legs of the Pick 3.  The A and B horses in each of the wagers should come out of your handicapping the two most likely non-favorite horses to win each race.   The C horse may be a favorite or another good non-favorite.     HANDICAPPING TIPS   FIRST TIME STARTERS - With first-time starters look for horses who the clockers tell us are showing more ability than their competition in the mornings.   Final times of workouts are relatively meaningless for most horses. However, how horses work with other horses in the mornings does provide insight into a horse's true ability. Trainers will often try to match workmates with equal abilities in the morning to bring them along together and not discourage them early on by being overmatched. These team works can tell us something important about the potential talent of these babies.  Take the time to research who a young horse is working with and follow the times of horses in the work teams and the race performance or horse that the horse you're following has been working with.  Workout times can be found at DRF.com.  Visit them daily and try to determine which horses are working together, then compare the work times over a series of works.  Some times you'll be able to spot young horses that stand out.   It takes a little work and dedication, but it's fun and requires relatively little time, especially once you've mastered your research skills.     (check back for more handicapping tips and wagering strategies coming soon)